What are Labour party MPs doing?

Last week I wrote that the local election results would have no impact on Keir Starmer and the UK Government. A few days later I had my head in my hands asking: what are they doing?

I am astonished by what has happened this week.

There is absolutely no reason for there to be a Labour leadership contest. Labour has a very strong majority of 156 MPs in the House of Commons. That means it doesn’t matter about criticism or votes from other parties, they are waves breaking on a sea wall. The Government will stand firm and do what it wants.

An aerial view of the Houses of Parliament.

The number of people who vote in local elections is much lower than the number who take part in General Elections. This is nothing new. The Electoral Commission has a graph showing turnout going back to 1973 and the number of people who vote in county council elections is consistently between 31% and 42%.

Most people do not vote.

Turnout for the last General Election was 59.9%.

Turnout for the Brexit referendum in 2016 was 72.2%.

So while no-one likes to lose elections, the impact of the local election results on the Government should be zero.

As I said last week, the Prime Minister has little personal power. He is not a president or a mayor. It is also a thankless task. Prime Ministers always get kicked out of office: either by the electorate at a General Election, or by their party.

Some Labour MPs have now decided they would like to be led by somebody else.

We’ve got used to changes of leader after the Conservatives went through five in eight years. But it is a lot harder to get rid of a Labour Prime Minister than a Conservative one. Unlike the Tories, letters of no confidence do not trigger a leadership contest. Either the Prime Minister has to resign (unlikely) or 20% of Labour MPs have to put forward an alternative leader.

If a candidate manages to pass this test, then they also need the backing of 5% of constituency parties or three affiliate organisations, including two unions.

So Starmer is safe until another MP can prove they have enough of their colleagues backing them to be a challenger. This is what Wes Streeting, who stood down as Health Secretary this week, is hoping to do.

The Andy Burnham gamble

A panel event at the University of Cambridge's Bennett School of Public Policy. Michael Kenny (Inaugural Head, Bennett School), Diane Coyle (Bennett Professor of Public Policy), and Andy Burnham (Mayor of Greater Manchester) are seated on a stage beneath a projected slide bearing their names, photos, and titles. — Andy Burnham (right) on stage at the Bennett Institute of Public Policy annual conference 2026

Andy Burnham used to be an MP and has been mayor of Manchester since 2017. This means he leads the Greater Manchester Combined Authority with a budget of £2.6 billion. The region has experienced 3.1% annual growth, higher than the national average. Burnham has flagship policies on public transport and education for young people.

He was stopped from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election by Labour a few months ago. The seat was won by the Greens.

Now a Labour MP, Josh Simons, has stepped down from his seat in Makerfield, opening the way for Burnham to return to Parliament.

It is a gamble.

He has to win the by-election. He was elected for a third term as mayor with 63% of the vote in 2024 so he does have support. But will the voters support this move? It’s possible Labour will lose the seat either to Reform or the Greens, which would be a much more damaging defeat than the local election results.

If he wins the by-election, then he has to pass the test of getting enough support from MPs and either the constituency parties or affiliates.

And then, he would have to win a leadership election.

If Starmer refuses to resign, his name will also be on the ballot.

Needless to say the Labour party has gone from some election results they could have ridden out easily, to setting themselves up for a potentially damaging election. This situation will be a massive distraction from what they should be doing for months to come.

The message to voters is that all politicians care about is themselves and party politics. It stops Labour from pressing ahead with their reforms. And it means the country doesn’t have the advantage of stable government.

All of this is a gift to Labour’s opponents.